The property market, “rush hour” multi-control policy overweight
Newspaper reporter Zhang Yujie
Recently part of the second – tier cities housing prices rose, real estate speculators in different places again signs of activity. Jinan, Mr. Shen is a joint-stock bank in Shandong high-level, recently received a phone call from his friends in Beijing, Jinan, asked about the property market and high-quality real estate, many people consider to buy a house investment in Jinan. After all, compared with Beijing, Jinan, housing prices are still considered “cabbage price.”
China Securities Journal reporter learned that the property market panic in some areas has attracted high-level attention. The industry believes that short-term supply and demand can not alleviate the contradiction of the city, control prices, control land prices, credit and purchase restrictions such as the control measures is still the main means. At the same time, housing prices also reflects the back of the “asset shortage” problem. How to guide funds into the entity, a reasonable management of the public expectations of the property market can not be ignored.
More city tightening policy
In this round of real estate regulation, the local government has become the main control policy issued around the subject. Central Plains real estate chief analyst Zhang Dawei said that judging from the current policy trends, around the control policy is still bound to credit and purchase qualification, “while walking,” a slight increase in the obvious trend of overweight.
At present, only the first-tier cities in Beijing has not yet announced control policies, pre-second-tier cities in housing prices among the top four cities have announced control policies. Due to the previous policy effect is not obvious, the recent number of local governments continue to increase regulation and control efforts.
August 9, Hefei limited credit policy overweight, provides: urban areas have more than 2 sets of housing, 1 and above the loan records, 1 or more than 1 outstanding; urban has 1 suite or no room , But there are two or more loan records, 1 or more than 1 outstanding, are to stop lending. Among them, check loans include foreign loan records. In accordance with the previous provisions, real estate has two suites, a loan did not clear, according to 60% down payment ratio loans. However, Hefei has not implemented the purchase.
September 18, Hangzhou announced two days after the purchase, Hangzhou three popular land is still high premium transactions, premium rates were as high as 323%, 325% and 150%. Which makes the Hangzhou control pressure increased sharply. September 27, Hangzhou upgrade control policy, since September 28, the simultaneous increase in the proportion of the second mortgage fund suite down payment, commercial housing loans down payment ratio of two suites, the suspension of home buyers. According to the announcement, two suites provident fund loans and commercial loans down payment ratio will not be less than 50%.
Kunshan City, also issued on the 28th real estate control policies, regulatory documents in Suzhou City, based on the proportion of the second suite provident fund loans raised to 30%.
Institutional sources said some of the second-tier property market, high fever, the future there are a number of cities may upgrade control policies, these cities are the recent housing prices rose higher, faster city. Zhengzhou, Wuxi, Fuzhou, Shijiazhuang, Tianjin, Jinan and other cities introduced or more likely to increase the regulation of the property market.
In addition to regulatory policy overweight, the regulatory agencies of penal institutions are also increasing penalties. September 26, Shenzhen, 6 square meters of “ant house” was informed of suspected violations of law, the relevant departments have been ordered “ant house” where the Qiaocheng still apartment project rectification. In addition, the Shanghai Banking Regulatory Bureau asked banks to immediately terminate the cooperation with the illegal real estate agency.
Zhang Dawei said that with some of the second-tier cities control overweight, the future policy began to “care bottom cap.” Relatively loose trend has changed, in the case of market differentiation, regulatory policies are also different. In this case, the housing prices rose faster in cities, including part of a second – tier cities and the radiation area of a binding policy. The future price increases in some cities too fast, then, will introduce further policies.
Housing prices rose “three-hand”
The industry said that the superposition of asset shortage of capital tide, and some buyers in this round of rising housing prices to bring wealth to demonstrate the effect of the property market is the main reason for the beginning of high fever.
The central bank recently released in August financial statistics data show that the month of RMB loans increased 948.7 billion yuan, up by more than 139.1 billion yuan. In terms of sub-sectors, loans to the household sector increased by 675.5 billion yuan, among which short-term loans increased by 146.9 billion yuan and medium- and long-term loans by 528.6 billion yuan. Analysts pointed out that personal loans, medium and long-term loans, most of the housing mortgage loans. In August, 528.6 billion yuan of personal loans were medium- and long-term loans, accounting for 55.71% of the total loans of the month, and the figure in August increased by 51.3 billion yuan from 477.3 billion yuan in July.
Zhang Dawei said that the data show that the past 10 years of real estate fluctuations in history and monetary policy are fully consistent with external macro factors is the main reason. Whether the economic environment changes, or the introduction of control policies, are the main reason for the market down. Due to credit stimulus, the cooling of the house prices to reproduce the outbreak.
Leverage and inventory level mismatch is also one of the reasons for the current round of housing prices rose. Among them, the tight supply and demand, higher prices in Beijing and Shanghai is the largest loan interest rate discount areas. This reporter has learned that the first suite of Beijing commercial loan discount has decreased from the original 83 fold slightly increased, but still at a low level of 85% off. Jinan, Wuhan and other capital cities, the first suite of commercial loans discount of about 9 fold to 9.5 fold. The biggest pressure in the three or four lines to the city line, the first suite of commercial loans in the basic level is not discounted. If taking into account the Beijing, Shanghai popular consumer credit and mortgage loans may have a considerable part of the property market, the real leverage of the Beijing-Shanghai property market is much higher.
This year, the overall liquidity tends to loose, bonds, trusts and other financial products yield decline, coupled with the real economy down rate of return, high-yield products rigid payment gradually broken, the capital of low-risk high-yield assets demand is not met, Asset shortage “followed. Real estate, especially a second – tier cities in the real estate become a lot of money chasing the subject.
In addition, the first wealth effect of the stock market has also attracted more newcomers. In some limited supply areas, supply and demand imbalance, leading to rising house prices.
Ironing mood expect combination punch
In the context of rising house prices, bearish sound more and more small, reluctant sellers phenomenon, which further pushed up prices.
Zhengzhou, as the current round of housing prices rose one of the cities, there has been a second – hand housing and second – hand housing availability of the strange phenomenon of depletion. This reporter learned that, at present the most fire area of Zhengzhou, the new plate was undoubtedly Zhengdong New Area, a popular real estate is often a “daylight.” New home market sentiment also passed to the second – hand housing market, popular areas of second – hand housing availability. Zhengzhou native Mr. Yang told reporters that the recent intention to buy a set of second-hand housing to live, but the district even a second-hand housing are not available. “Is not no room to sell, but the seller that the house but also prices, cover plate reluctant to sell serious mentality, which aggravated the buyer’s panic mood.” Mr. Yang said.
Beijing’s data also show that market sentiment has gradually become a sign of panic. Cloud room data market analysts told reporters that Beijing monthly house price chain data show that prices rose sharply this year is not a linear rise, but experienced a number of stages, including market expectations on the role of price movements is very obvious. The analyst said that 1-3 months of this year, Beijing is the acceleration of housing prices rise, when in Shenzhen, Shanghai, housing prices rose and a variety of positive factors, driven by panic buying in Beijing, the seller have raised the listing price, fast prices rise. Into April, with the Shenzhen, Shanghai has introduced strict control policies, buyers gradually become rational, house prices narrowed, this trend remained until July. But into August, driven by investment demand, home buyers chase sentiment intensified, the market re-warming, the price rebounded significantly.
Intermediary feelings are more intuitive. Chain home real estate broker told reporters that the upward trend in the market, the buyer to buy up or not buy a serious attitude. Area as long as there is a suite price increases and smooth transactions, the follow-up housing prices will only be higher than the previous price, prices will be logical. The entire district and even the relevant regional prices to go up.
Zhang Dawei believes that the current part of the property market to solve the problem of high fever from three angles to proceed: to reduce the capital tide; increase quality assets; to resolve the panic of buyers. These three aspects need policy force. Credit can not only vote in the real estate, should guide them into the entity; real estate to the inventory can not go only to a second line of inventory, the banks of the three four-tier cities should increase preferential efforts. At the same time, should also increase the supply of land in key cities. “We must give the market a stable expectation, which will help cool the market.” Zhang Dawei said.
“In the normal market, bullish and bearish gap is roughly equal, even so, the long-term accumulation of small differences will lead to market volatility, thus forming a cycle from the current real estate market, although the overall risk is still controllable, But the long and short differences in the growing expansion of the overall trend of more and more to see more strongly.This phenomenon should be vigilant.Once more power to see an overwhelming advantage, the market bubble will sharply enlarge. “Liu Jing, Senior Research Institute of China Construction Bank, said .
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